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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Friday
• 
• High: 59 °
• Low: 39 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Saturday
• 
• High: 55 °
• Low: 37 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Sunday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 41 °
• Chance of Rain

• Monday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 41 °
• Chance of Rain

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 66 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of a Thunderstorm

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington 
503 am PDT Fri may 24 2013 


Synopsis... 
cool and showery weather will continue through Saturday, then a 
subtle warming and drying trend is anticipated by Monday as the 
upper-level low moves out of the area. The break will be 
short lived as another cool, showery pattern returns around the 
middle of next week. 




&& 


Discussion... 
today and tonight: an upper low and the shortwave pivoting around 
it will provide a good chance of showers for the inland northwest, 
especially this afternoon. The low and its associated shortwave 
disturbance were tracking through Portland, Oregon this morning. 
It was helping to generate the swath of precipitation along the 
west and central Washington/or border and it was starting to reach toward 
the Chelan-Grant-Adams-Garfield County borders. 


Satellite/radar extrapolation and models are in good agreement in 
tracking the low into the lower Columbia Basin later this morning, 
before it pivots northeast through the Blue Mountains through 
central Panhandle of Idaho this afternoon and early evening. This 
will allow the swath of precipitation to continue it expansion 
east and northeast. Coverage increases through the afternoon, with 
the added threat of thunderstorms, working with the increased 
convective instability with daytime heating. On average models 
depict 100-200 j/kg of cape this afternoon and early evening, 
before conditions begin to stabilize with the loss of daytime 
heating. 


The lack of strong lift and/or 0-6km shear suggests that any 
thunderstorms that develop should not be too organized. The 
exception lays around the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie into the 
clearwaters where 30-60kts of shear are indicated. A few stronger 
storms are possible here in the afternoon and evening. The 
limiting factor may be cloud cover which could inhibit the 
atmosphere from reaching it full convective potential. 


After dark the threat of precipitation wanes, but doesn't entirely 
end and skies do not appear to clear completely as models string a 
secondary weaker vorticity lobe in from the west. The primary 
shower threat linger in the Cascades and northeastern mountains. 
/J. Cote' 


Saturday through Thursday...model agreement exists as far as 
maintaining an overall troughy flow regime over the region through 
the extended period. There are significant differences in the 
depiction of minor waves and disturbances transient through this 
overall regime. The GFS is most consistent with the timing of the 
only major feature/wave to impact the region...a beefy cold front 
with plenty of precipitation potential way out on next Wednesday 
or so. 


So...for most of the forecast period a generally slightly cooler 
than average regime featuring general small to medium chances for 
afternoon and evening showers concentrated especially over the 
mountains ringing the basin is called for. There will be no major 
storm systems to impact the region until the aforementioned cold 
front toward the middle of the new work week. Thus while the 
Holiday weekend will feature a threat of showers from time to 
time...there does not appear to be any day that will be 
particularly wet...or particularly dry either. The smallest chance 
for showers will be in the Cascades Lee zones and deep basin 
with the highest chance in the mountains north and east of the 
basin. The broad brush approach of daily small to moderate shower 
chances may come across as somewhat weaselly...but is well justified 
in this regime. /Fugazzi 




&& 


Aviation... 
12z tafs: some patchy fog will impact the northeast valleys this 
morning, mainly before 16z. However it should remain largely away 
from taf sites. Low pressure and energy moving around it will help 
push a swath of precipitation from Oregon into southern Washington 
and the central Panhandle this morning. It is expected to weaken 
as it pushes north, but the still approaching upper disturbance 
and daytime heating will help develop other scattered showers this 
afternoon and evening, with a chance of thunderstorms. Expect 
primarily VFR conditions but local MVFR cigs are possible in 
heavier showers. The threat of showers will wane after dark. 
/J. Cote' 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Spokane 57 42 63 44 67 47 / 60 40 20 10 10 10 
Coeur D'Alene 57 42 63 42 66 43 / 60 50 20 10 20 20 
Pullman 55 40 63 42 66 44 / 60 30 20 10 40 20 
Lewiston 61 45 70 48 73 50 / 60 30 20 10 30 30 
Colville 63 42 67 42 72 43 / 60 60 40 30 20 20 
Sandpoint 58 41 62 39 66 41 / 60 60 30 20 30 30 
Kellogg 54 42 60 43 64 46 / 70 60 40 30 30 30 
Moses Lake 64 47 72 47 75 49 / 50 20 10 0 0 10 
Wenatchee 63 49 68 48 72 51 / 40 20 10 0 10 10 
Omak 63 42 68 42 73 44 / 40 40 20 20 10 10 


&& 


Otx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Washington...none. 
&& 


$$