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Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Saturday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 50 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Sunday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 45 °
• Chance of T-Storms

• Monday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 50 °
• Chance of Rain

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 61 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of Rain

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 46 °
• Chance of Rain

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Missoula Montana 
236 PM MDT Sat may 25 2013 


..potential for heavy rain for mid to late next week... 


Discussion... 


Today...a shortwave of energy will continue to rotate northeast 
through Idaho and western Montana today, which will help initiate 
a few showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Most of the 
action is expected to stay confined to areas of Missoula south 
into southwestern Montana. Any thunderstorms that do develop are 
expected to be fairly weak, with just brief gusty winds and short 
burst of heavy rain. However, occasional lightning can occur, so 
if spending time outdoors this Memorial Day weekend, take cover if 
any storms drift overhead. A low pressure system spinning in 
Alberta may kick off a few showers across northwestern Montana 
today, though the atmosphere is a little more stable further 
north, which should keep any showers from developing into 
thunderstorms. 


Sunday...a low pressure currently off the coast of Washington 
state will swing through the region in the early afternoon that 
will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area. 
The atmosphere will be more unstable and energetic with this 
system, so a few isolated strong thunderstorms could occur in the 
late afternoon. At this time the stronger storms look to mainly be 
in central Idaho and southwest Montana. These storms could bring 
strong gusty winds and small hail, though are anticipated to be 
sub-severe. 


On Monday and Tuesday a couple of weak disturbance will be moving 
through the northern rockies causing afternoon and evening showers 
and thunderstorms. Temperatures for the first part of the week 
will be near normal readings. 


The models are indicating another round of widespread heavy rain, 
especially across northwest Montana, for the later part of next 
week. A mid-level circulation will move over Wyoming causing 
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to stream into the region. Areas 
along the Continental Divide could potentially see several inches 
of moisture. Confidence is growing that the region will see the 
heavy rain, but the timing and path of the circulation is still 
uncertain. 


&& 


Aviation...clouds and showers are increasing this afternoon as the 
lower atmosphere destabilizes. A weak disturbance passing through 
southern Idaho and into southwest Montana will add a little bit 
better lift for a thunderstorm or two across southwest Montana, 
mainly impacting kbtm until 26/03z. Mountains will be obscured at 
times in clouds and precipitation during this period. 


Conditions are expected to improve once again overnight tonight as 
showers dissipate and clouds slowly erode. Yet another spoke of 
moisture/energy will be sweeping across central Idaho and western 
Montana on Sunday. Clouds and showers will be increasing by early 
afternoon. Stability parameters would suggest a better chance of 
thunderstorms with a few potential strong storms with 35mph gusts 
and small hail. All airfields will be impacted by clouds and 
showers after 26/20z. 


&& 


Mso watches/warnings/advisories... 
Montana...none. 
Idaho...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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